These prophets of catastrophes, have sought to explain very good numbers for the second half of 2009 in excessive inventories fall that damaged the economy. If you ask me my opinion, I am on the side of this argument and add the following words: we must not forget that during 2009, the U.S. economy has been stimulated by a very active fiscal policy, which pointed to several fronts. Stimulus policies were the only argument which explained recovery which observed both the automotive and real estate market. With a 3% and 3%, Epstein and a good portion of the market, expect that the economic growth during 2010 and 2011 evolves, but what so likely are these values for an economy seriously threatened on several fronts? If we wear it’s optimistic and put aside the numerous threats that intimidate to recovery, to answer the previous question, we would have to put eyes on the real engine of the American economy that is the family, the American consumer. And without doubt, expectations about the evolution of domestic consumption in the immediate term, is not at all encouraging. There are several factors that prevent a vigorous and sustained recovery of domestic consumption. First, the unemployment rate that in January and February has been placed in 9.7% of the economically active population (PEA), speaks for itself.

Along with high unemployment, fear of losing to those who possess it, modifies consumer habits and thus, American families have shown in the last time, much more thrifty than usual. Moreover, the financial system fails to leave behind the problems. And on top, the turbulence in Europe threaten to affect several entities have European assets in their portfolios of investment! So good (just seeing it in terms of recoverability of financial intermediation), they are the postulates on the new regulation, which can benefit immediately to the dynamics of the consumer credit. Household consumption is still affected by the High indebtedness that they have today and that adds to the loss of riches that suffered by financial collapse.