Month: September 2012

American FED

We attend to an explosion of the world-wide commerce and the prices and demand of commodities. The oil arrived 100 US$ the barrel prenunciando an energy shock that finished not happening, at least so far. The Winter, that would be the second contraction and according to Kondrantieff a depression, was initiated by return of 2000 with the excess of liquidity and generated wealth, alavancada for the low interests and deregulation of the financial market. As consequences we had the burst of the bubble of the point with and famous company in addition as Eron, WorldCom, etc. history would be interesting if we had not lived serious crises as the fall of the stock market in 1987, the Japanese deflation from 1990, the Scandinavian crisis of 1992, the Mexican insolvency of 1994, the Asian crisis of 1997 and the Russian crisis of 1998. This everything without counting the famous terrorist attack of 2001 that as exgeno factor would knock down any theory of economic cycle for the chaos lived in the global economy, very managed well for the American FED. The interpretation is valid, but many pleas fit. He can until being and many economists must be making over again Kondrantieff or following the miditica wave that surrounds this crisis.

A thing is certain, is living a wave of a economic cycle, if the theory of Kontrantieff or another economist can confirm, leaves for the scholars. In the future we will have much academic substance for studies and research for the current moment, in the global economy. J. Shumpeter, one of the great ones economists of the Austrian, current school in many theories, as the creative destruction, the phases boom, contraction, depression and recovery created a nomenclature for a cycle calling. If to analyze the recent facts is possible to enxergar all the described 0 variable for Shumpeter, less still the feared depression, happily.